Natural hazard-triggered technological (Natech) events represent a significant intersection between environmental phenomena and technological vulnerabilities, wherein natural hazards such as wildfires, earthquakes, or floods catalyse incidents that result in technological disasters.
These events are well-documented in the civilian sector, highlighting their potential to cause widespread damage to infrastructure, disrupt essential services, and pose risks to public safety. However, when it comes to military infrastructure, the implications of Natech events are often less thoroughly examined, raising critical questions about preparedness, resilience, and response strategies.
Military installations, which are vital for national defence and security, may face unique challenges in the face of such disasters, as they often house sensitive equipment, munitions, and personnel. The impacts on military infrastructure can lead to significant operational disruptions, loss of critical capabilities, and potential threats to national security. Furthermore, the integration of advanced technologies within military operations may also increase susceptibility to Natech events, necessitating a comprehensive assessment of risks and the implementation of robust mitigation measures.
A new European Commission Joint Research Centre (JRC) report highlights this issue, demonstrating how military sites storing hazardous materials are exposed to disaster risk.
Why might this be a critical blind spot?
Unlike industrial sites governed by the Seveso-III Directive, military installations are typically excluded from similar mandated risk assessments.
Case studies such as the 2023 Nea Anchialos Airbase (Greece) incident and 2011 Evangelos Florakis Naval Base (Cyprus) incident show how heat and wildfires triggered high-impact munitions detonations.
While climate risks to defence infrastructure are gaining attention in EU and NATO strategies, Natech risks remain largely absent from defence planning frameworks. For example, the EU Climate Change and Defence Roadmap (2020) recognises the impact of climate change on defence operations and infrastructure but does not explore the nexus of climate change with Natech risks.
Unlike civilian sites, where risk assessments are published, military risk data is often (quite rightly) classified, limiting the sharing of lessons identified and integration into wider national preparedness frameworks.
The JRC report provides a methodology for stronger integration of Natech risk management into defence planning, including infrastructure resilience, scenario-based preparedness, and policy adaptation.
Military organisations must develop and refine strategies that encompass risk assessment, emergency preparedness, and disaster response protocols tailored specifically to the unique characteristics of military operations. This includes investing in resilient infrastructure, conducting regular training exercises that simulate Natech scenarios, and fostering collaboration with civilian emergency management agencies to ensure a coordinated response. By prioritising these initiatives, the military can enhance its capacity to withstand and recover from Natech events, thereby safeguarding both personnel and critical assets while maintaining operational readiness in the face of natural hazards.
With a shifting environmental climate combined with a turbulent geopolitical landscape, military resilience must surely be a strategic priority.
Full report here: https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC140738
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